Blog:Not quite the crest of a wave, but dairy company looks solid
Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010Mark Allen’s beloved Stoke City may be on a roll — the Potters are unbeaten in the Premier League and FA Cup so far this year — but the company he runs is showing less certain form. Shares in Dairy Crest, the mid-cap maker of Clover, Country Life butter and Cathedral City cheese, have fallen by 17 per cent Mbt since its first-half results in November, against an unchanged FTSE all-share index and a 6 per cent gain for Robert Wiseman Dairies, its closest listed peer.
But yesterday’s third-quarter results conveyed little sign of weakness. Sales of Dairy Crest’s five leading brands, which also include Frijj flavoured milk and St Hubert Omega 3 spreads in France — are up about 10 per cent on the year, with the company citing the benefit of strong “non-promotional” (or higher-margin) sales during December. Its dairies division is also faring well, helped by recent cost-cutting, the renewal of big supermarket contracts, such as that with J Sainsbury, and brisk take-up of milk&more, its doorstep milk operation. And tight management of cash is making a dent in its borrowings: net debt is expected to have fallen to beneath £350 million by March 31, against £416 million a year earlier. The result is that, echoing the pattern of previous trading updates, full-year forecasts were nudged ghd hair straighteners modestly higher. Royal Bank of Scotland, Dairy Crest’s joint stockbroker, now expects pre-tax profits of £83 million this year, and £87.5 million next.
That advance must be considered creditable, given Dairy Crest’s increased expenditure on advertising (an additional £5 million in the second half) and stepped-up investment programme. Rather than jettisoning its dairies (which last year made profits of only £7.9 million on sales of £1.1 billion), it is committing an extra £75 million in capital expenditure on its four plants over the next three years — largely on efficiency improvements and product development. Such an outlay will hamper the pace of future debt reduction but should be seen as part and parcel of competing more effectively Mbt with Scandinavia’s Arla Foods and Robert Wiseman, whose facilities are more up to date.
Challenges remain. Dairy Crest last reported a pension deficit of £178 million, which is likely to have been inflated further by lower discount rates; moderating food price inflation may make supermarkets tougher buyers; and the long-term future of doorstep delivery is unclear. The corollary is that lower raw milk prices will boost profits from cheese.
The bigger picture is that Dairy Crest has been doing all the right things since last year’s enforced dividend cut — which, even so, has left the shares yielding a respectable 5.4 per cent ghd straighteners. At 341p, or seven times next year’s earnings, the shares’ recent underperformance should be nearing its end. Buy.